Intensifying Rhetorical Battle Involving Ethiopia and Eritrea Triggers Fears of Military Confrontation

Mounting concerns are present regarding the possibility of military engagement among East African neighbors, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as aggressive rhetoric has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has triggered a heated rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in last year that his nation's access to the sea was an vital issue, comments that Eritrea rejected.

Relations between the both governments have regularly been difficult. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, leaving it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a territorial conflict started in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Latest Comments from Ethiopian Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted control of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the border - and implied the wish to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "blunder" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "addressed soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrea's Answer to the Statements

Despite persistent warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to short statements on X from Information Minister the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for maritime entry calling it "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "irredentism" – a strategy of reclaiming former lands.

Government spokespeople cautioned on 16 September that efforts to legitimise "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Border

Currently, there are no reports of significant troop deployments in the border areas between the both nations.

However, in Ethiopia, government media has displayed completion events of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The leader of human resources department of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Historical Background of the Conflict

For over fifty years from 1890, Eritrea was governed by Italian rulers.

After World War II, it was then controlled by the British military before evolving into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the ruler cancelled this system and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A extended armed struggle followed, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Independence was then endorsed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their common border, causing war in 1998.

Though this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries remained at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The two endorsed a statement that the conflict was finished – a decision that earned Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then partners in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 internal conflict in the northern region.

However diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated anew.